The primary limiting factor for Russia is not ammunition or manpower, but likely equipment, and capacity to employ forces at scale (quality). Russian forces can ill afford to throw away an army’s worth of equipment for an offensive like Avdiivka given their replacement rate. 11/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

At this point Russia’s fires advantage of 5:1 to 6:1 is significant, but not decisive. The growing problem is a higher rate of glide bomb employment by the Russian VKS, averaging 30-40 per day on parts of the front and from increasingly longer ranges (from 40-55km to 60km+). 8/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

Glide bombs are fairly inaccurate, but destructive. They are not a form of close air support. However, they suppress units, destroy buildings, and fortifications. One of the reasons the AFU was pressed from Avdiivka was the concentrated volume of UMPK strikes by Russian VKS. 9/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

A plan to establish nationwide fortifications is being rolled out, featuring multiple defensive lines and a system of fortified strongpoints. The immediate challenge is the weakness of secondary positions behind the front lines currently held by forward-deployed troops.

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

The AFU is short on artillery ammo & barrels are a growing issue. This is where Western material assistance remains essential. As Congress debates the supplemental, a combination of ammunition deficits and manpower issues, are resulting in Russian gains. 7/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

Ukraine needs more infantry in particular, which is not difficult to equip. Battalions end up with few platoons of viable infantry, unable to execute key tasks. Infantry is necessary not just for assault, but to hold the defensive lines and entrenchments which are being built. 4/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

Mobilization requires resourcing. Western assistance and UA manpower issues are connected. UA needs funding and training support. However, the lead times to resolve manpower issues are significantly greater than what it will take to ship ammo if the supplemental is passed. 3/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

Some brief thoughts following a recent field study trip to Ukraine. The current situation is difficult, but UA is working to stabilize the front. Much depends on whether the US provides support, and UA effectively addresses its manpower issues in the coming months. 1/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

⚡️A 🇷🇺Russian BMP-3 was destroyed in the Avdiivka area, Donetsk region pic.twitter.com/45RsU6o1YA

— 🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦 (@front_ukrainian) 19 mars 2024

A Russian BMP-3 was destroyed in the Avdiivka area, Donetsk region

→ View original post on X — @front_ukrainian

Germany will allocate funds for the purchase of 180,000 artillery shells as part of the Czech initiative for Ukraine, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said. The supply of the ammunition will be carried out in stages, and the process of sending will begin in the summer.

→ View original post on X — @hromadske