That's very different from Ukraine where every village resisted. So, yes, there are more people in Russia, but their morale is low, training is inadequate, and they will sooner fight each other than unite and be willing to die in the name of Putin. 10/

→ View original post on X — @mylovanov

Do this and you will end up thrown out of power. The war in Ukraine is all games and fun for most of the Russians as long as they don't have to pay the cost themselves. We do not see people resisting en masse in Belgorod and raising to protect their cities and villages. 9/

→ View original post on X — @mylovanov

continuous long-range attacks in Russian territory, gas embargo, oil price ceiling, primary and secondary sanctions, Russian fiscal challenges, international isolation, firmer support for Ukraine, F16s, tanks, shadow storms … How is Russian winning? 4/

→ View original post on X — @mylovanov

2. This is a war of attrition. 3 factors decide: (1) Balance of resolve. (Both sides are resolved.) (2) Population. (3) Artillery. Let's start with resolve. In Ukraine, the entire people has resolve. In Russia, the Kremlin and even then not everyone. 5/

→ View original post on X — @mylovanov

And there is chaos and infighting within the Russian military leadership. All of this was exchanged for gaining a small non-strategic city of Bakhmut, but even that is contested. Now recall Belgorod, Crimea attacks, Black Sea fleet problems, UAVs over Moscow, 3/

→ View original post on X — @mylovanov

Actually, the 2023-2022 comparison is wrong. Even after the battles for Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson were lost, Russia had more territorial gains in 2023 than in 2022. In 2023, the Russia mobilization wave produced no result. The number of casualties doubled. 2/

→ View original post on X — @mylovanov

David Sacks's misinterpreted John Mearsheimer who's misinterpreted the history and Ukraine. And the Twitter went wild. So, let's take their arguments apart. 1. The Russians are winning the war. Ukraine had the upper hand in 2022 but Russia has it in 2023. 1/

→ View original post on X — @mylovanov

No, it is Russia who has dragged people into mobilization. It is Russia who has pushed large numbers of troops into Bakhmut to die for no reason. And it is Ukraine that has predominantly volunteered or professional army force. Even more than a year after the war. 21/

→ View original post on X — @mylovanov

7. Russia will take the 4 oblasts they already annexed plus (if they can) another 4 oblasts to the Dnipro River including Odessa and Kharkiv. That's delusional. Russia has not been able to take a single regional center during this campaign, expect Kherson which was taken back.

→ View original post on X — @mylovanov

6. Ukraine pushed large numbers of troops into Bakhmut in a losing effort. Ukrainians are becoming desperate to conscript men. Russia has not fully mobilized yet. 20/

→ View original post on X — @mylovanov