This is truly wishful thinking. Yes, the Russians are doing mindless frontal assaults, there is ton of evidence from Bakhmut. And everyone I have spoken to who either has direct experience or is a military expert says that the ratio is in favor of Ukrainians, by much. 18/

→ View original post on X — @mylovanov

Whoever adapts and innovates faster has the upper hand. And in this war it is Ukrainians. For morale reasons and for structural reasons. The Russian military and technology is not the best in the world. but now it has been proven to be much weaker than it was thought before. 15/

→ View original post on X — @mylovanov

Russians were shooting at the rate 20-50K per day. This definitely put a stretch on most of the artillery units in operation and they need barrels replaced. That's a real problem and not easily solvable. Talk to people in the artillery, better still on the ground. 13/

→ View original post on X — @mylovanov

Do this and you will end up thrown out of power. The war in Ukraine is all games and fun for most of the Russians as long as they don't have to pay the cost themselves. We do not see people resisting en masse in Belgorod and raising to protect their cities and villages. 9/

→ View original post on X — @mylovanov

That's very different from Ukraine where every village resisted. So, yes, there are more people in Russia, but their morale is low, training is inadequate, and they will sooner fight each other than unite and be willing to die in the name of Putin. 10/

→ View original post on X — @mylovanov

2. This is a war of attrition. 3 factors decide: (1) Balance of resolve. (Both sides are resolved.) (2) Population. (3) Artillery. Let's start with resolve. In Ukraine, the entire people has resolve. In Russia, the Kremlin and even then not everyone. 5/

→ View original post on X — @mylovanov

continuous long-range attacks in Russian territory, gas embargo, oil price ceiling, primary and secondary sanctions, Russian fiscal challenges, international isolation, firmer support for Ukraine, F16s, tanks, shadow storms … How is Russian winning? 4/

→ View original post on X — @mylovanov

And there is chaos and infighting within the Russian military leadership. All of this was exchanged for gaining a small non-strategic city of Bakhmut, but even that is contested. Now recall Belgorod, Crimea attacks, Black Sea fleet problems, UAVs over Moscow, 3/

→ View original post on X — @mylovanov

Actually, the 2023-2022 comparison is wrong. Even after the battles for Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson were lost, Russia had more territorial gains in 2023 than in 2022. In 2023, the Russia mobilization wave produced no result. The number of casualties doubled. 2/

→ View original post on X — @mylovanov

Pope Francis has sent Italian Cardinal Matteo Zuppi to Ukraine on a two-day trip to discuss prospects for peace with the government in Kyiv

→ View original post on X — @euromaidanpress