My best guess is Moscow will wait to see what comes of this offensive before proceeding with a second mobilization wave. I would not discount anything, but right now the RU offensive looks to yield mostly incremental gains that come at the expense of equipment and ammunition. 12/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

There’s a growing likelihood that Ukraine will withdraw from Bakhmut to a defensive line east of Slovyansk/Kramatorsk. The Russian military may then turn north and try to consolidate control up to the Donets River (including Bilohorivka). 7/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

RU forces have not had much success at Avdiivka or Marinka. This is another area that’s seen months of fighting. The Russian offensive doesn’t look like much of an offensive because it is playing out in areas that have previously seen unsuccessful Russian attacks. 8/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

Russian forces are attacking at Vuhledar, Marinka, Avdiivka, Bakhmut (and Bilohorivka), Kreminna -> Lyman, with attempts to advance near Kupyansk. The offensive began in the last week of January with a Russian assault on Vuhledar.

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

The terrain outside of Vuhledar is very open, heavily mined, and covered by UA ATGM teams. It leaves RU forces few options for an assault. I also wonder if the Russian military may be short on specialized equipment for tasks like mine clearing. 5/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

A few thoughts on the Russian winter offensive, which began 3+ weeks ago, and has so far yielded little progress for RU forces. Poor force quality, loss of junior officers, ammunition, and equipment constraints limit Russian offensive potential. Thread. 1/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

Critics argue that allies’ reluctance to supply F-16 and Typhoon fighters and long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine will prevent Kyiv from launching a counteroffensive. The U.S. has also promised to supply GLSDB missiles but they may arrive in 9 months, which may be too late.

→ View original post on X — @kyivindependent

Borrell: 'Ukrainians receive a lot of applause, but not enough ammunition' "(President Volodymyr) Zelensky and the Ukrainians get a lot of applause, but not enough ammunition," The EU's top diplomat Josep Borrell said. "They need less applause and more weapons."

→ View original post on X — @kyivindependent

Russian occupation forces shelled Kherson Oblast once again, killing three members of the same family in the village of Burhunka, Beryslav district, regional authorities report. Four more people were wounded in the family's house: the grandmother, an adult man, and two minors.

→ View original post on X — @hromadske