It's quite easy for Western and Ukrainian intelligence to keep track of military preparations in Belarus. There is a NATO country, Poland, nearby – reconnaissance aircraft easily fly from it. And after all that's happened in February, I think they're looking east pretty hard. /66
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Belarusian involvement in war threatens Lukashenko’s stability narrative.
And a real war with Belarusians killed at the front would also break the thesis of stability, on which Lukashenko has also been riding for years. If men go to die, who will "toil peacefully in the factories and farms"? /64
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Belarusian leaders know Putin is losing; no one joins a losing war, especially with risks to Belarus.
Besides, both the authorities and the generals in Belarus understand how this war is going. That it is lost by Putin. No one will enter a lost war with weaker forces. All the more so as now there is also the risk of transferring hostilities onto the territory of Belarus. /62
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Mariupol vs. Other Cities: What Happened to People and Homes?
What happened to Mariupol's people and homes?
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Russian army’s attack is a knowingly lost battle, leading to more losses and wasted resources.
I do not see any way in which the Russian army could win. On the contrary, by attacking it will only engage in a knowingly lost battle. It will lose even more soldiers and equipment. In addition, it will waste a lot of resources that will not go to other fronts. /53
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AFU border options: stand firm or flexible retreat with minimal civilian evacuation.
The AFU can stand tight on the border, or it can flexibly retreat – only civilians will have to be evacuated, but there are not too many of them there. /51
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Russian offensive from Belarus echoes war’s start; Ukrainians await.
In essence, the Russian army will face a situation similar to the beginning of the war. There is simply no other way out for an offensive from Belarus. There is no magic way to teleport troops. On the other side will be the Ukrainians. /49
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Putin’s forces may breach Ukrainian defenses, AFU may retreat
I think that with the competent use of all available firepower, Putin's forces may well penetrate 1-2 gaps in the Ukrainian defence – this is something to be feared. The AFU will probably retreat to the 2nd or even 3rd line to save forces. /46
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Russian tactics: drive-forward shelling, then assault
So far, Russian units have used two methods of attack. The first is to get into trucks and drive forward until they start shelling. The second is to shoot a lot first, then storm the enemy positions, of which little is left. That's it. /42pic.twitter.com/F2rVxxijCm
— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) 14 décembre 2022So far, Russian units have used two methods of attack. The first is to get into trucks and drive forward until they start shelling. The second is to shoot a lot first, then storm the enemy positions, of which little is left. That's it. /42
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Tactics of the sides in a hypothetical Putin attack
Tactics of the sides. Assuming Putin's troops do decide to attack, what tactics should they expect? Can they outplay the Ukrainians with some special techniques? /41