If we use an attack formula with a 3-to-1 strength ratio, it comes out that Ukraine needs only about 20,000 men for defence, taking other factors into account. This figure does not look unrealistic, I think Kyiv's defence is not less than that now. /40
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Ukrainian army defending its territory, needs less supplies
On the other side they will be met by the Ukrainian army, which is fighting on its own territory. Including the units covering Kyiv. Yes, most of the supplies and equipment are in the east. But the fact is that the defending forces need less of it. /38 pic.twitter.com/BOCT4GiAC6
— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) 14 décembre 2022On the other side they will be met by the Ukrainian army, which is fighting on its own territory. Including the units covering Kyiv. Yes, most of the supplies and equipment are in the east. But the fact is that the defending forces need less of it. /38
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Putin’s army faces severe shortages despite mobilization, raising questions about future attacks.
Despite mobilisation, Putin's army is still in a situation of severe shortages. The attack we are discussing needs combat-ready, well-equipped units with reserves for 1-2 months of fighting. Where will they come from? /37
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Regime overthrow march planned, covering Gomel and Mozyr, controlling internal situation.
A march to overthrow the regime, which will surely be supported by the locals. He needs a force that will cover both Gomel and Mozyr and also control the internal situation – more about that a little later. /35
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Lukashenko: Bold Ukraine Attack Could Pave Way to Minsk
Look at the map. The border between Ukraine and Belarus is quite long. Who will guarantee that by throwing all his forces into an adventurous attack, Lukashenko will not get a march of Ukrainian units to Minsk via Gomel and Bobruisk? /34
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Belarusian army readiness review fuels offensive and mobilization rumors
Many are turning their attention to the Belarusian army. Could it become the backbone of the offensive? They've announced a combat readiness review again today, there are rumors of mobilisation and there's a lot of talk about Lukashenko's soldiers possibly being used. /32
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Russian Army Armoured Vehicle Losses Documented by Oryx
According to rough estimates before the invasion, on paper the Russian army had about 11,000 armoured vehicles, including tracked BMPs, wheeled APCs and unarmed MTLBs (3,500). Since then 2,800 have been lost according to Oryx. /28 https://
oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack
-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
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Russian army faces severe shortage of tanks and armored vehicles.
The second difficulty is equipment. The Russian army is experiencing a severe shortage of tanks and armoured vehicles, which has been replenished even by deliveries from Belarus. There is a shortage of armoured vehicles even for the active front. /26pic.twitter.com/Xo3Lt1s35B
— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) 14 décembre 2022The second difficulty is equipment. The Russian army is experiencing a severe shortage of tanks and armoured vehicles, which has been replenished even by deliveries from Belarus. There is a shortage of armoured vehicles even for the active front. /26
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Estimation de 50 000 hommes pour l’offensive
Total – 6 brigades + reserve. That is in the region of 40,000 men at least. Taking into account supply troops, additional artillery, special forces troops, I estimate a minimum possible grouping of 50,000 people. This counts only those who will take part in an offensive. /20
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Ukraine-Belarus border battlefield difficult to attack, NATO concerns cited
At the same time, the attackers' flanks will also be under threat, or the invasion zone would have to be expanded to the border with Poland, but that may cause nuances with NATO. In general, the battlefield on the border of Ukraine and Belarus is difficult to attack now. /16