39/ One final point: a senior US military official explained that Russian losses (killed, wounded, prisoners and missing) amounted to more than 100,000 men. This is consistent with the figures of 20,000 dead that were circulating a few weeks ago. But he added…

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38% of Russians. Also, Ukrainians have new opportunities, especially since the recapture of Kherson maintains their national narrative of reconquering the country and the Western skepticism we had mentioned has diminished.

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37/ Likewise, the Russian situation is still not optimal: the southern front in Zaporizhzhia appears to be a weak point that could cut off Crimea from Donbas; similarly, the situation in the north of Luhansk oblast (Svatove) remains precarious and the front line is not advantageous.

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36/ Obviously, this does not guarantee future success. Once again, the Russians have ceded a lot of ground. The decision to reallocate their troops to more favorable positions is an advantage also known to the Ukrainian army, which can also rearticulate.

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34/ Two months after hastily organized referendums and the annexation of four oblasts proclaimed, Kherson was declared the regional capital of a Russian region… Six weeks later, said capital is abandoned.

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Militarily, why stay? To maintain a bridgehead. But for what purpose? To advance one day, first towards Mykolaiv, beyond towards Odesa. But these objectives are political objectives, not military ones. Ultimately, they exhaust the Russian system.

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23/ However, they may have supply problems for the latter. I'm not even talking about Western reserves; the debate on ammunition in Europe and France has been public enough that no one is under any illusion. What about Ukrainian artillery?

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On February 22, they had to reorganize to become less vulnerable. On the other hand, the logistical pressure also weighs on the Ukrainians: do they still have enough shells? Let's recall that while they do have Western-made howitzers, most of their artillery pieces are of Russian origin.

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18/ First explanation: Ukrainian pressure on bridges and rear logistics made the Russian holding of the position untenable over time. In this sense, the withdrawal would be only the distant consequence of a long-running operational maneuver carried out with

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