14/ Further north, Ukrainian efforts on the Svatove line follow one another but are repelled by the Russians. Yesterday, the effort targeted Kuzemivka, north of Svatove, whereas until now, the Ukrainians were pushing between Kreminne and Svatove.
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Uncertainty in Mayorsk, futile Russian pressure in Bakhmut and Soledar
13/ Bakhmut sector: The village of Mayorsk, just north of Horlivka, has been announced as captured by the Russians three times this week. Uncertainty therefore remains. The Russian pressure in the outskirts of Bakhmut and Soledar yields nothing.
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Russian micro-advances: Optyne taken, pressure on Vodyane
12/ Donetsk Front: Again, Russian micro-advances. Optyne, north of the airport, reportedly finally taken. Pressure on Vodyane, last Ukrainian stronghold before Avdiivka, remains strong. Very limited push towards Pervomaiske and to the south.
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Zaporizhzhia Front: Russians retake Pavlivka despite Ukrainian fire
11/ Zaporizhzhia Front: the battle for Pavlivka has been ongoing for fifteen days: the Russians are said to have retaken the town again, despite Ukrainian fire from the dominant position of Vuhledar. They continue to press in the sector (SE of Donetsk).
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Russian reversal and Ukrainian success near the Dnieper
As of today, the Russians are entrenched behind the Dnieper river barrier, while the Ukrainians have retaken Kherson. Symbolically and politically, it is a new Russian setback and a new Ukrainian triumph, without question.
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Interpretation of Ukrainian messages about the trap
9/ It is perhaps in this light that we must understand the Ukrainian messages from the end of last week, mentioning a trap. Their intelligence must have observed all these preliminary movements but questioned their interpretation. Hence the idea of a trap.
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Russian withdrawal from right bank, few prisoners and equipment
Thus, on Wednesday the Russians announced their withdrawal from the right bank. It seems they succeed in moving their troops across while most of the equipment had been removed earlier. The images show few Russian prisoners and little equipment (whose condition is unknown).
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Destroyed bridges and mined defenses slow Ukrainian advance
7/ They destroyed all crossing means and blew up the fixed bridges on the river. They left behind organized and mined defensive lines. As a result, the Ukrainians advance cautiously and above all do not attack the Russians.
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Breakthrough along the Dnieper and sector abandonment
5/ and another to the north of the pocket when they had succeeded in breaking through along the Dnieper, which had forced the Russians to abandon the sector to regroup. It is in this light of a longer perspective that the events of the week should be examined.
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Hypothesis of 20,000 Russian soldiers and unexploited bridgehead
4/ In issue 35, I mentioned the hypothesis of 20,000 Russian soldiers in the pocket. I then indicated that I did not believe in a quick siege of Kherson. Thus, in two months, the Ukrainians had captured a small bridgehead near Lozove that they had not exploited,
