@ZelenskyyUa
: #Ukraine has received #NASAMs from the #US.
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Rapid coastal strip conquest and advances toward Mariupol, Lugansk
A rapidly conquered coastal strip (Kherson to Melitopol), the capture of Mariupol, and the seizure of Lugansk Oblast. Its level of losses and the adversary’s (UKR) rising strength, aided by Western support, logically shifted the balance of power.
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Russia’s military failures in Ukraine
On 22/ this was not enough. It suffered two setbacks: the first during the Kyiv operation (where Russian forces likely lost a third of their casualties), and the second with the loss of the Izyum salient and the abandonment of Kharkiv. It only achieved meager successes:
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Significant Russian Combat Capability Despite Izyum Setback
As I said last week, Russia retains significant combat capability, and despite the setback at Izyum, they still show fighting abilities to be wary of.
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Bakhmut and tactical stakes against Ukrainian lines
Conversely, the potential capture of Bakhmut by Russian forces would have no immediate tactical impact. While it would represent a symbolic victory, the possibility of outflanking Ukrainian forces positioned along the Ozerne-Siversk line appears more distant.
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Can Ukraine trigger Lyman’s fall and disrupt Russian deployment?
16/ East of Lozove: will the Russians manage to counter them, or conversely, will the Ukrainians continue south, to the point of triggering Lyman's fall? If this were to happen, the Russian deployment would once again be disrupted, and they would have to start all over again.
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Ukraine Loses Momentum, Russia Reorganizes
14/ In other words, the UKR have lost the dynamic advantage brought about by their August 30th success, and the RU have managed to reorganize. It was certainly necessary to control the conquered territories, and the UKR sought to continue to push the RU. This has not been enough so far.
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UKR Special Forces Raids: Fragile Gains, Limited Impact on RU Lines
13/ UKR continues its assaults, but it appears to be mainly special forces operating, which would explain why the few positions captured are not well-held and are insufficient to destabilize the, albeit fragile, RU deployment.
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Russian Front on Oskil: Fragile but Holding Three Weeks After Izium
12/ The RU seem to have succeeded in organizing a new front along the Oskil River. It is still fragile and locally subjected to UKR assaults, but more than three weeks after the Izium retreat, it is still holding, which was not a given.
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Battles near Mikolaivka and Odradivka; bridges in Bakhmut blown
They would have taken Mikolaivka south of the city on Route 513, and would besiege Odradivka, a locality just before the city. Finally, it seems that the fighting in Bakhmut is ongoing: the UKR reportedly blew up the bridges in the city.