After the war is over, Russia faces a surge in crime. Also a significant number of children, especially in poor regions, will be left fatherless, which will lead to a new wave of crime in 5-10 years when these children become teenagers. 38/
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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War veterans’ mental health issues: Afghan, Chechen, and Ukrainian syndromes
5. Those who have returned from war have a number of mental problems – post-traumatic syndrome in the military. In Russia in recent decades it has been the "Afghan" and "Chechen syndrome". The scale of losses in Ukraine has already exceeded both the Afghan and Chechen wars. 37/
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Ukraine war: 500,000 dead/wounded, impacting productive men’s future.
The war in Ukraine will cause the loss of about 500,000 dead and wounded (a significant proportion of whom will be permanently disabled) in a year. These are men of the most productive age, whose entire working and social lives are ahead of them. 34/
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Estimation des pertes russes en Ukraine
Losses will be comparable to those of DNR troops – British intelligence estimates that as of June (3.5 months into the war) they left 55% of their original strength. It can be assumed that in the next 6 months the losses among the Russian mobilised may amount to 60-70%. 31/
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After the first days of mobilization, local repercussions and variable call-up
After the first days of mobilisation, we see that the authorities are following this tactic, so in poor regions there is a significant probability of people outside the target category being drafted as well. 28/
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Former Ukrainian MP traitor killed after voting in Kherson referendum
According to the preliminary reports from RBK, former #Ukrainian MP and traitor Oleksii Zhuravko, who had just “voted” in a “referendum” in #Kherson, died as a result of a purported strike.
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Journalist covers four torture stories across Ukraine
This week I worked on four different stories for four different publication, yet all related to torture. That shows the scale of the horror Ukraine is facing. @emre_caylak_ of the torture chambers discovered in Izium.
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Russia’s demographic hole: Fewer young men for potential mobilization
Because of the demographic hole of the 1990s and early 2000s, there are now only 7.3 million men aged 20-29 in Russia. Mobilization is more likely to target those who have served. In recent years some 250,000 men a year have been drafted. 24/
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Focus on demand, not decree figures, as authorities can change them.
The authorities will urge as much as they want to change the figure in the decree at any moment, to this or that side. We should not start from a formal figure in the decree, but from a demand. 20/
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Mobilization: Conscripting unwilling non-professionals leads to significantly lower military efficiency.
Mobilization implies the conscription of non-professionals who do not want to serve, which means that their efficiency will be several times lower than that of the professional military. 17/