It can be assumed that by the end of September this figure is in the order of 35,000-40,000. If we take the ratio of killed to wounded as 1 to 3, the total losses of the Russian grouping at the end of September are of the order of 150,000 men. 14/
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Russian troop numbers and recruitment efforts during the war
1. At the beginning of the war the total grouping of Russian troops was estimated at 200,000. Beginning in the spring, the authorities actively recruited citizens to serve on short-term contracts to replace those killed and wounded. 12/
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Two crime waves predicted: war veterans and fatherless orphans
5. We expect two waves of a spike in crime. The first wave will be among those returning from the war. The second wave will be among orphans who will grow up without fathers. 6/
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Estimated conscript casualties: 60-70% in first 6 months, 15-20% killed
3. We estimate the expected casualties during the first 6 months among the conscripts at 60-70%. Of these we estimate 15-20% killed, 45-50% wounded. 4/
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Ukraine war’s demographic damage to Russia will dwarf COVID’s impact
4. The demographic damage from the war in Ukraine to the Russian population will be many times greater than the damage from the COVID pandemic. 5/
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Draft call-up: 2-3 million targeted, over 25% probability
2. We estimate the target group for the first call-up to be 2-3 million people. In total, the probability of being drafted among members of this group exceeds 25%. /3
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Mobilization of 700,000 to 1 million people expected in the next 6 months
From @mironov_fm & @itskhoki
: Brief conclusions: 1. Over the next 6 months an attempt will be made to mobilise between 700,000 and 1 million people. /2 -
Medic worker Mamонova Mariyana freed from captivity gave birth to a girl
Freed from Russian captivity, medic Mariyana Mamonova gave birth to a girl
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Kherson missile strike kills former MP Zhuravko, Russian media report
As a result of a missile attack on the center of Kherson this morning, according to Russia, two people were killed, including former MP and collaborator Oleksiy Zhuravko, reported Russian propagandist media with reference to data from a representative of the emergency services.
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Russians announce 45% turnout in ruined Luhansk cities without voter numbers
Russians announce 45% "referendum turnout" in Luhansk's ruined cities abandoned by most residents – Oblast Head Russians have no idea how many residents remained in the newly occupied cities and never announce the number of "votees," only a percentage.