So far, there are visible signs of Ukrainian gains, with breakthroughs through the first line of Russian defenses. That said, Russian forces will retreat to secondary lines. As friction increases, the pace of the advance could slow down. As I often suggest, outcomes are contingent.
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Ukrainian local counterattacks exploit lost Russian momentum in Kharkiv and Donbas
To place the offensive in context, much of the front has become active with UA forces launching localized counter attacks around Kharkiv and Donbas. These local initiatives are probably designed to take advantage of lost Russian momentum. 9/
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Analysis of Ukrainian aims around Kherson and Snake Island
I doubt Ukraine seeks a fight for the city of Kherson itself, which would be costly and could destroy much of it. Instead, to steadily compress the pocket around it, make reinforcement impossible, and force a Russian withdrawal (à la Snake Island). 5/
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Russian forces pressured by supply lines and river crossings
With supply lines strained, given regular strikes against bridges & relatively weak capacity of ferries, this could place Russian forces in an untenable position, eventually forcing a retreat across the river. UA will probably have more success pushing the northern pocket. 4/
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Kherson advances: Three axes, unclear Ukrainian force composition, notional map.
My impression is that there are at least three axes of advance in Kherson, but it’s difficult to tell the composition of UA forces. I'm making an educated guess here – this map is very notional. 6/
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Russian forces likely withdraw to secondary lines, UA isolates pockets
As Russian forces are pressed to choose between retreat and envelopment, over time they will likely withdraw to secondary defensive lines, steadily compressing the battlespace. If successful, UA may begin to isolate these groupings into several large pockets. 3/
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Ukraine expects Germany to lead air defense build-up, PM Shmyhal tells President Steinmeier
"We expect that Germany will become one of the leaders in the process of building up our air defenses," PM Shmyhal noted at the meeting with German Federal Steinmeier. https://
euromaidanpress.com/2022/09/04/ger
many-has-made-huge-progress-in-its-support-of-ukraine-with-weapons-ukrainian-pm/?swcfpc=1
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Shelling kills woman in Odnorobivka, injures 3 in Andriyivka
A 50-year-old woman died in the village of Odnorobivka of the Zolochiv community as a result of shelling after a shell hit her house. At the same time, in the village of Andriyivka of Izyum district, 3 civilians were wounded by shelling & hospitalized in Kharkiv region hospitals.
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Russians shell Kharkiv region: deaths and injuries
Russians continue shelling Kharkiv Oblast. As a result, one person died in the region, and three others were injured, reported the regional government.
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Russian rocket kills 2-year-old child in village
Local resident of Novi Petrivtsi village, Kyiv region, remembers a horrible day in March when a Russian missile flew into his house. The explosion threw him into the street, the building was destroyed. There were 7 or 8 families in the house.
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) 4 septembre 2022
2 year old child died.
🎥:@ukr_now pic.twitter.com/h7UkXdWp3YA local resident of Novi Petrivtsi village in the Kyiv region recalls a horrific day in March when a Russian missile struck their home. The explosion threw them into the street, and the building was destroyed. The house had 7 or 8 families living in it. A 2-year-old child died.