33/ this support, at the very moment when Western public opinion is growing weary of Ukraine and beginning to worry about the economic consequences of sanctions. That said, the report is precisely published in the middle of summer and its effect can be relativized.
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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RU Propaganda: Delicate Case for Kyiv Tarnishing its Moral Standing
32/ However, it has been extensively exploited by RU propaganda and the affair comes at a bad time for Kyiv, which did not need this, during the summer lull. One of Kyiv's advantages remains its moral position, which sustains Western support. Such a report obviously tarnishes
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Grain Deal: Ships Depart Odessa, Proving its Utility
30/ Political Assessment: The first grain ships departing from Odessa have successfully left the Black Sea, proving that the negotiated deal has not sunk into details. It was therefore useful to both parties applying it properly.
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Resources moved to critical front points in Ukraine
Facing this, each side moves its resources to critical frontline points. These resources appear to be limited on both sides. The UKR has managed to attract RU reinforcements into the Kherson pocket, which eases pressure on the other theaters.
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Revised Campaign Objectives: Minimal Operational Ease for the Capital
25/ unattainable by the end of the 2022 campaign. However, providing some operational ease to the "capital" of the "autonomous republic" constitutes a minimal objective, significantly scaled back from what was announced at the beginning of the conflict.
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Four simultaneous attack axes near Donetsk
24/ four simultaneous and converging attack axes. They may be aiming to create small pockets to reduce later, following their usual tactics. Overall, the effort remains focused on clearing Donetsk, failing which to retake the entire oblast, which seems a distant prospect.
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RU Takes Initiative on Bakhmut and Donetsk Fronts
23/ Military Assessment: This week, the RU clearly have the initiative. They have abandoned the N front and are focusing on Bakhmut and Donetsk. The effect of their offensive must be appreciated over time, but it is the first time in a long time that we have observed
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The RU harden their stance on the Dnieper
The Russians have taken it seriously and have hardened their positions: by doubling the means to cross the Dnieper (following attacks on bridges), by bringing in reserves, and by increasing artillery.
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Possible Russian defensive line near Kurakhove
A possible and upcoming Ukrainian defensive line could be established near Kurakhove-Hyrnik-Ocheteryne. However, let's not get ahead of ourselves, as Russian progress is very slow toward Bakhmut with gains still limited to Donetsk. Nonetheless, the initiative is Russian.
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Russian Reinforcement on Southern Front, Ukrainian Success Through Counter-Offensive Announcements
18/ Across the entire S front, a reinforcement of positions is observed. Thus, the RU have moved numerous units into the sector, either south of Zaporizhzhia or in the Kherson pocket. This is ultimately the great UKR success: by dint of announcing a counter-offensive to the W,