16/ Towns and villages are located in valleys, and RU attack routes follow them. As often happens, when blocked, they flank through less urbanized hillsides. The terrain beyond appears clear, and if the current UKR defensive line gives way, one can consider a

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The Ukrainian positions at the city's outskirts had been established since 2014-2015 and were heavily fortified. This also explains why the Ukrainians generally hold their strongpoints. However, an analysis of the terrain shows that the rivers are oriented southwest to northeast.

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14/ Finally, a fourth axis of attack would take place even further south, coming from the east and south, targeting Ugledar/Vuhledar. By putting these four axes of advance into perspective, it is clear that Russia’s priority is to relieve Donetsk.

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13/ Further south (third axis of attack), RU launched an assault on the village of Marinka. They reportedly took a third of the town, held firmly by UKR. Here too, they are attempting to outflank from the heights.

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12/ Above all, the attempt to bypass from the south and the village of Pisky has developed. The RU control a large part of the city, except for the NW outskirts still held by the UKR. The RU are attempting to outflank from the south and the village of Nevelske.

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This, following the capture of Lysychansk, lasted at least three weeks. It was a long time to regroup along the axis, but it seems the Russians used this period to reposition further south (see our earlier note on Izyum).

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9/ Ainsi, ils voudraient dégager les villes importantes placées sur la ligne de front (Horlivka et Donetsk, donc), dans une poussée de l’E vers l’O. Ce mouvement serait significatif de la phase actuelle, lancée la semaine dernière après la fameuse pause opérationnelle.

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7/ This maneuver relieves the north of Horlivka, a separatist city that had been on the front line for 8 years. But the overall impression is of a change of maneuver. Let's recall that one of the RU objectives is to liberate the Donetsk oblast.

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5/ Bakhmut itself remains in UKR hands, with RU possibly having reached the outskirts of the town. They continue to push to the SE around Vesela Dolyna and Zaitseve. However, their maneuver involves bypassing from the south.

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4/ Bakhmut salient: RU are no longer pushing north towards Siversk. They are reportedly in the very first suburbs of Soledar (fighting in the Knauf plant) but UKR are resisting vigorously. Fighting for Yakovlivka is still ongoing.

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