The battle over Donbas is important but not especially decisive for Ukraine. UA has sought to exhaust Russian forces there by forcing attritional fights over cities/towns, while making localized counter attacks along other parts of the front. 11/
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Ukrainian forces gain ground west of Kherson river
Around Kherson, west of the river, UA forces have made steady gains eating away at Russian positions & inching a bit closer to the city. The battle lines are more fluid here, and Russian forces are the most spread out in these positions. (Yellow UA gains, Purple RU per Nathan) 9/
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Bataille indécise au nord de Kharkiv
North of Kharkiv there has been a see-saw battle between UA efforts to push Russian artillery away from the city & Russian efforts to retain a buffer. The fight is indecisive. It does not appear that UA has the forces to threaten Russian supplies to Izyum. 8/
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Russian Objective in Sloviansk/Kramatorsk, Donbas
Russia's likely goal in Donbas is to launch a battle for Slovyansk/Kramatorsk, advancing from Izyum in the west and from the east, provided they can break through Bakhmut. This objective remains highly aspirational at best.
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Russian advance meets Ukrainian defenses
If successful, Russian forces will eventually encounter a Ukrainian line of defense at Bakhmut-Siversk. This would push the frontline further west, but Ukrainian positions around Slovyansk and Kramatorsk remain heavily fortified. Russian forces have made little progress pushing from Izyum.
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Russian advances in Ukraine face challenges
Due to heavy losses in the early weeks of the war and difficulty coordinating forces, the Russian military has been unable to conduct large-scale envelopments. Instead, it has been forced into a slow, grinding advance, relying on concentrated artillery fire and leveling towns to push Ukrainian forces from their positions.
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Russian forces threaten to sever Severodonetsk/Lysychansk pocket after recent advances
Over the past month Russian forces struggled to break out of Popasna, but have now taken Severodonetsk, and their advance at Toshkivka places them outside Lysychansk. The Russian military now threatens to sever the Severodonetsk/Lysychansk pocket. 2/
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Current War in Donbas: Incremental Gains, No Major Breakthrough
A few thoughts on the current course of the war. The Russian offensive grinds on in the Donbas. Both sides have made incremental gains, neither is near collapse, but equally, both lack the forces for a major breakthrough. Thread. (Will use some of Nathan's maps) 1/
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Russian missile strikes service station in Dnipro, casualties trapped under debris
Russian missile hit a service station in the city of Dnipro on June 28. Attack caused the fire. The number of casualties is being clarified as people are now trapped under the debris, says Dnipro Mayor Borys Filatov
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Putin TV proposes Griner-Bout swap and execution of US POWs
— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) 28 juin 2022
Putin's state TV cronies ponder out loud about exchanging Brittney Griner for Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout and propose executing U.S. POWs Alexander Drueke and Andy Huynh one day before the midterm elections to undermine the Democrats and Biden. https://
x.com/JuliaDavisNews
/status/1540004834920865792?s=20&t=XwxLMqK00LdVL6z9cepuiw
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