In both cases, it requires a tremendous amount of time. I stated at the beginning of my analyses that the conflict would be measured in weeks. It is now necessary to envision a conflict in months, unless a localized rupture leads to tactical or operational upheavals.

→ View original post on X — @egea_blog

From now on, each side relies on logistics: artillery shells for the Russians to build up their armor; the arrival of modern assets (and corresponding ammunition) for the Ukrainians to restore a balance of capabilities.

→ View original post on X — @egea_blog

… and improve one's own RAPFOR, just like UKR tactics: withstand as long as possible through counter-battery fire and a slow retreat to prepared positions, while waiting for the arrival of American guns to balance the RAPFOR and reverse the course of events.

→ View original post on X — @egea_blog

These estimated RAPFORs also explain the course of the fighting: slight Ukrainian progress in Kharkiv, a stalemate in Kherson (both are now on the defensive), and a slight Russian advance in the Donbas. This also explains Russia's tactics: massive use of artillery to wear down Ukrainian defenses.

→ View original post on X — @egea_blog

21/ A RU BTG theoretically comprises 1000 personnel. After attrition (75%), it can be estimated at 750 personnel. A UKR brigade consists of 5 battalions of approximately 500 personnel each. After attrition (80%), it can be estimated at 2000 personnel. Assuming these units are adequately equipped, we would then have:

→ View original post on X — @egea_blog

Front Kharkov: 5,000 RU vs 6,000 UKR
Izyum Axis: 22,000 RU vs 12,000 UKR
Severo Axis: 19,000 RU vs 10,000 UKR
Popasna Axis: 7,000 RU vs 4,000 UKR
Donetsk Axis: 20,000 RU vs 6,000 UKR
Zaporizhzhia Axis: 13,000 RU vs 6,000 UKR
Kherson Axis: 7,000 RU vs 10,000 UKR

→ View original post on X — @egea_blog

18/ Reasons for Ukraine's push toward Kharkiv, which is easier to reach than southern Donbas. Maritime front: The Ukrainian navy was sunk early in the conflict. The Russian navy lost several units, including the cruiser Moskva, from shore-based strikes.

→ View original post on X — @egea_blog

17/ of the oblast under its administration and its logistics.
Logistics Front: the RF has continued its deep strikes campaign, targeting electrical relays, logistical hubs, weapons factories, and crossing points on the Dnieper. Perhaps it is a

→ View original post on X — @egea_blog

The last civilians have been evacuated. The remaining Ukrainian fighters held out until May 9, preventing Putin from declaring victory in the city: an undeniable symbolic success for Ukraine. The Kherson front saw little activity. Russia is consolidating control.

→ View original post on X — @egea_blog

The southern front appeared relatively calm. However, Russian forces continued minor operations north of Velyka Novosilka and further west toward Orikhiv. Their overall intent in this area remains unclear. Mariupol: Azovstal still not captured.

→ View original post on X — @egea_blog