On 13/ the Russians have finally captured the city of Popasna, which had been resisting them for weeks, opening the way for a slow but steady advance northwest toward Kramatorsk and Izyum. Progress is slow and laborious, yet consistent with minimal Russian losses. It’s not flashy.

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This stems from attrition caused by Russian artillery (RU ART); Ukrainian forces (UKR) are withdrawing in an orderly fashion to pre-prepared positions while wearing down enemy advances. However, Russian intentions to cross the river and renew operations toward Sloviansk are evident.

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The northern Donbass front has evolved. Russian nibbling is not spectacular, and some believe the Russians are stagnating. Yet, looking week by week, the effects are there: the Okhil pocket has shrunk, meaning the two axes of advance

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7/ what enables, as in Kharkiv, to reverse the local RAPFOR; or, RU withdrawal which believes it now has several logistical axes and that progress elsewhere makes coverage less necessary. Prefer the first hypothesis to the benefit of UKR.

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5/ What effort does this require for the UKR? How significant is this progress?
Further south, the UKR is said to have also advanced on the western flank of the Izium axis. Our reader will recall that 15 days ago, I had reported that the RU had advanced.

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To the east of the city, Ukrainian forces have retaken Staryi Saltiv. They are pushing Russian troops back to put the city beyond artillery range. They are reportedly continuing their advance toward the border. However, Russian forces reportedly have only 5 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) in the area, equivalent to one front.

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Weekly Update #10, dated May 8, 2022
After ten weeks of war, analysts still struggle to discern the ongoing movements. Yet, this week seems to have seen a balance of initiatives, with Ukraine achieving some results.

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A young woman gave birth to a child in a basement of a Mariupol building, receiving medical advice via Telegram. The difficult delivery occurred amid the ongoing conflict in the city, highlighting the extreme circumstances faced by civilians.

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GeoConfirmed. "Shelling in #Odessa, 2 explosions near the airport." POV: 46.417237, 30.708859 GeoLocated by @hugeglassofmilk #GeoConfirmed. https://
t.me/epoddubny/10425

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