Further south in the Donetsk-Horlivka region, Russian offensive operations are expected to continue in Marinka and Avdiivka as Russian and proxy militia forces attempt to breach Ukrainian prepared defenses along the contact line.
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Kharkiv OD: Estimation of Blocking BTGs and Russian Movements
3/ Kharkiv OD. The Ukrainian General Staff estimates at least 7 BTGs of the 6th CAA & Baltic / Northern Fleet Naval Infantry blocking Kharkiv and screening Russian movements east of the Siverskyi Donets. #Kharkiv
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5/ Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD: Russian general offensive
5/ Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD. The Russians have expanded their initial limited probing/recon in force attacks of 19-22 April into a general dispersed offensive. Russian troops are pushing methodically on generally mutually supporting axes north and west of Slovyansk-Kramatorsk.
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Weather favors Russian offensives
2/ Weather Impact. The 10-day forecast for eastern Ukraine favors Russian offensive operations. Partly cloudy skies will not degrade VKS sorties or UAV operations. Higher temps (16-21 C) will start to dry out areas with extensive mud, slightly improving offroad movement.
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Ukrainian forces threaten E105 highway near Belgorod
Ukrainian forces are moving closer to Kozacha Lopan, threatening Russian control of the E105 highway from Ruska Lozova to Belgorod. A Russian loss of the E105 highway would place Belgorod at greater risk of Ukrainian long-range strikes.
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Levada Poll: Russian War Support Fades, Blame Shifts to US/NATO
Latest Levada poll about Russians' support for war:
74% support it (down from 81% in March), 11% don't
Interest fading, esp among youth
68% think it is successful, 73% that will win
57% think USA&NATO guilty of destruction, 7% that Russia https://
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Zelenskyy: Confiscated assets for rebuilding, war criminals punished, Bulgaria deal
Zelenskyy address:
Ukraine is working to direct all assets confiscated worldwide to rebuild Every soldier who committed war crimes will be punished agreed with Bulgaria on export of electricity, using its ports for selling goods https://
t.me/V_Zelenskiy_of
ficial/1421
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Russia may use reconnaissance in force after Ukraine gives ground
So there will be counterfire fights between RU and UA, but it might be awhile. So UA has to give up ground. When they do that, the RU will send in "reconnaissance in force" or RFI. Small combat units to take limited objectives in multiple places. 9/
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Forces russes en difficulté face à l’Ukraine
…are undermanned, not well supplied, not well led, are on ground they're not familiar with, and they don't do maneuver all that well. So we're seeing RU forces temporarily take ground, then being pushed back by the smart, better led, more adaptive active defense of the UA. 11/
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Artillery duel expected; Ukraine maneuver forces will outperform Russia
Finally…we're about 7-10 days (at best) into this second phase. It will go for awhile. New forces are feeling each other out in the east. RU will initially outgun with arty, then it may become a big arty duel. But UA maneuver force will outperform the RU. 12/12