UKR MoD estimated RU casualty figures of 18,000+ soldiers; 700 tanks destroyed or captured. As an old tank Division Commander, those figures are unfathomable to me. The US went into Desert Storm with 400k+ troops and a bunch of equipment…imagine those losses back then. 9/
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Critique of Russian military planning and capability challenges
Less ambitious than the original plan… but still indicative of a lack of troop-to-task reqt, log support planning, understanding of terrain & UKR Army, & knowledge of the capability of the UKR force. I will predict – again – RU will be challenged with all this 6/
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Russia still aims to seize Odesa and more
RU still wants Odesa…and more. I believe the plan is "hold in the east, move S from Kharkiv and Izyum, link Mariupol w/ Donetsk S of the Dnieper, move N toward Dnipro, attk from the sea, & move further W to Odesa…& beyond? Here's an imprecise operational sketch: 5/
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NSA says Russia refocuses on Donbas; author expects envelopment from north and south
The NSA said RU wants to refocus on Donbas…the east of UKR where there's been fighting since 2014. That seems likely, but there's more to it. I don't expect a RU "frontal assault" into Donetsk & Lahansk, but rather an envelopment from N & S. And…perhaps more. 2/
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Russia’s early goals: destroy army, control Donbas and coasts
RU's original strategic objectives were to destroy UKR army/subjugate the population. They will NOT give up territorial gains they've made in the N…the road from Kharkiv to Izyum There is still the desire to control Donbas & they also want the Azov & Black Sea coasts. 3/
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Fighting intensifies along Ukraine’s southern coast
Along the coasts, the fights in Mariupol & Berendyansk in the east have been brutal, as have the fights in Kherson and Mykolaiv (in the west) In the S, they get logistics from their bases in Crimea. But RU will want more – much more – in the South. 4/
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Filtration and deportation of Izium residents by Russians
In Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, Russian forces are conducting filtration measures and forcibly deporting local residents to Russia, according to Ukraine's General Staff.
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Découverte d’une chambre de torture russe à Boutcha
Russians' torture chamber discovered in basement of children's health resort in Bucha. The bodies of five murdered men were discovered in the basement. Their hands had been tied and they appear to have been tortured. Source: Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine.
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Russians destroy library with 16,000 books
In the village of Oleksandrivka, Kherson Oblast, Russian military forces destroyed a library containing more than 16,000 books, according to Olena Malyarenko, director of the Stanislav Public Library.
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40 Days of Hell in Mariupol: Azovstal Destroyed but Not Defeated
40 днів пекла в Маріуполі
— First Corps Azov of the National Guard of Ukraine (@azov_media) 4 avril 2022
Приазовська фортеця в полум'ї та попелі.
Зруйнована.
Та не скорена. pic.twitter.com/5mngFgPK2b40 days of hell in Mariupol. Azovstal in flames and ash. Destroyed. Yet not defeated.