Governor: Russian forces shell hospital in Kharkiv Oblast. According to Governor Oleh Synehubov, Russia shelled a hospital in occupied Balakliia to frame Ukraine’s Armed Forces. He added that the building is partly destroyed & 70 people require immediate evacuation. 1/2

→ View original post on X — @kyivindependent

Since the beginning of April, Lithuania's gas transmission system has been operating without importing Russian gas. The Lithuanian Ministry of Energy announced that the decision was made in response to Russia's energy blackmail of Europe and its war against Ukraine.

→ View original post on X — @liganet

Although I think it makes sense to frame the next chapter in this war as principally a battle for the Donbas, I would caution against assuming that this bounds Russian aims and Moscow will then declare victory, seeking an early end to the conflict. 17/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

Russian forces took weeks to make progress in Izyum and remain stalled in their attempts to push further south. No significant advances from Zaporizhia over the past week, but if Mariupol falls, it could free up Russian logistics and manpower along the southern axis of advance.

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

That said, a large Russian envelopment of UKR forces in the JFO looks unlikely. Rather it will be a slow, costly, and ponderous assault in an effort to push UKR forces out. This is where Russia appears to be concentrating the bulk of its forces and firepower. 14/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

In the Donbas, Russia has made incremental gains, seizing Izyum. Those offensives were plagued by poor force density & employment, which has characterized much of the campaign. However, withdrawn units are now arriving from other fronts to reinforce the Russian attack. 13/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

There are indications that Russia deployed separatist units in this area (Trostyanets) in order to shift forces to the Donbas. For over a week Russian forces have been redeploying for a push in the Donbas, depleting forces on several stalled fronts. 11/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

Russian units around Kyiv are likely to be redeployed by rail to the Donbas or near Kharkiv. A number of fresh BTGs have been brought in from what was available in the Russian armed forces to reinforce the Donbas campaign. This sets the stage for the next phase of this war. 12/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

A few weeks into the war a battle for Kyiv was looking highly unlikely. Russian forces were stalemated in heavy fighting in towns on the outskirts, couldn't encircle or blockade Kyiv, and they lacked secure supply lines. For weeks they had been dithering & suffering attrition. 8/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael