The air situation remains unclear as Russian aviation has evidently not achieved total air superiority. At sea, however, there is little doubt that the Russian navy dominates. On the cyber and space fronts, little has been visible so far with 13/n

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However, there is a sense of an escalation in this high-intensity conflict, and one can expect more brutality from the Russians. 12/n

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Nevertheless, this valiant resistance, even bolstered by Western support (situation updates, light arms contributions), may not be enough as Russian pressure simultaneously intensifies. Indeed, it is unknown how much of their potential is currently mobilized 11/n

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3/ Advancing towards Kyiv, the third decisive point and (from the Russian perspective) probable Center of Gravity targeted. This objective has clearly been delayed. The Russian army has expended a lot of forces there, and from this point of view, we must acknowledge a tactical success by the UKR since the start of the fighting 10/n

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This description clearly shows the operational objectives of the Russians: 1/ to envelop the UKR deployment facing Donbass (40,000 men) so as to force it into a very difficult retrograde maneuver and reduce it. This objective seems within reach for the Russians. 8/n

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A junction with forces already in place can be considered by the end of the week. Furthermore, Russian forces have advanced north of Donbas (Luhansk) and could link up with forces coming from Kharkiv, also this week. 7/n

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Establishing a rapid bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnipro, capable of advancing towards Mykolaiv and then Odesa. This axis encountered no logistical difficulties and progressed quickly, achieving all its operational objectives. 5/n

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Three axes of advance can be discerned: one to the north (from Belarusian territory) toward Kyiv, on both sides of the Dnieper. This axis has been hindered both by Ukrainian resistance and by logistical difficulties (mud and deficient supplies) 3/n

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At the very start of the conflict, the Russian military had attempted a rapid seizure of Kyiv, combining speed, surprise, and shock. This maneuver failed. It therefore shifted to a more traditional approach, consistent with its strategic culture, relying on mass.

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Russia has completely stopped even pretending to follow the laws of war. Multiple large-scale attacks on civilian targets have been reported across Ukraine.

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