Information about the clearing of the bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnipro is not true, – Defense Forces of the South of Ukraine Thus, the Defense Forces reacted to the statements of the head of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, Shoigu, who reported to Putin that "Krynky have been cleared." "Russian occupation forces, lacking
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Russia incentivized to pressure depleted Ukrainian forces, constrained by volunteer intake
Russia has many incentives to keep the pressure on the UAF on its current path—attacking Ukrainian positions while they are rationed or depleted. Russia is constrained somewhat by keeping overall casualties to a level that can be sustained by ‘volunteer’ monthly intake/23
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Ukraine’s precarious situation without aid
This is a precarious time for Ukraine –without aid this situation will degrade. They are asking for support, and when given,there is a way forward. /end
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Kramatorsk and Sloviansk: strongholds built over ten years
Kramatorsk and Sloviansk are strongholds. Like Avdiivka, these towns are defended and have been built up over the past ten years. Russia will pay costs to attack these towns- as long as the UAF receive additional ammunition and manpower to defend /18
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Pression russe et lignes défensives ukrainiennes
Russian forces are keeping pressure along the frontline the past several months to exhaust UAF and their supplies. Ukrainian defensive lines are being constructed, but there are areas that have very little by way of prepared positions in the south. /20
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Retards d’aide militaire affament les troupes ukrainiennes
Final thoughts. Ukrainian units are being starved of ammunition from delays in western (mostly American) military aid. Some are also experiencing manning problems as a result of policy delays in mobilization in Kyiv. (there are many reasons for that). /19
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Russian forces advance on Chasiv Yar and Avdiivka threaten Pokrovsk
To the north, Russian forces are trying to get to Chasiv Yar to the west of Bakhmut, and move to the NE of Avdiivka. If they gain control of these roads, Pokrovsk is at risk from two routes. /15
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Russia must attack heavily defended Kramatorsk-Sloviansk positions
The most heavily defended Ukrainian positions in this area are the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk defenses. If Russia tries to advance to the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk, they would need to attack these heavily defended locations. /17
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Pokrovsk: Vital intersection for UAF reinforcement and resupply with two defense lines
Pokrovsk is a vital intersection that allows the UAF to reinforce and resupply multiple units in the area. Pokrovsk has two lines of defenses. /16
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Russian attacks accelerate in Robotyne to reverse Ukrainian gains
In the south, Robotyne and other areas have been under attack for months; and attacks are accelerating in but in recent days. Russia’s goal there is likely to reverse UAF counteroffensive gains and deal a psychological blow to the UAF and to the West. /14