Avdiivka became the emphasis for the Russians in October, and now I suspect it will shift shifting to two areas. One, Robotyne in the south, with a possibility of trying to push west to the edge of Donetsk oblast. /13
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Russian forces maintain fires advantage and regenerate units through 2024
Russian forces have a 5:1 fires advantage and are regenerating combat units from training pipelines in Russia, and are pulling equipment from storage and can do this through 2024. /11
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Russian military leaders see opportunity due to Ukrainian deficits and delayed aid
Russian military leaders’ training and mindset will tell them that now is the time to press forward on objectives: UAF units have ammunition and manpower deficits, American assistance is delayed, western ammo production targets are not reached. /10
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Russia increases units in Donetsk with 2:1 manpower advantage
As @konrad_muzyka sees, Russia has been steadily increasing units in Donetsk, probably some of this was in support of Avdiivka operations. Russia is looking at a 2:1 manpower advantage in the area which could be concentrated against individual objectives
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Russian advance past Avdiivka threatens Pokrovsk route networks
If Russian forces continue to advance past Avdiivka and capture route networks, including west of Bakhmut, they eventually threaten a more strategic location, Pokrovsk, around 80KM away. /8
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Russia exploits Ukrainian shortages to exhaust forces
What’s next for Russian forces? They know about Ukrainian rationing, delays in vital American military assistance, and UAF manning issues. Their strategy since the fall of 2023 has been to apply pressure along the front to fix UAF forces and try to attrit/exhaust them. /9
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Ukrainian forces destroy Russian armor in Donetsk
⚡️🇺🇦Ukrainian soldiers from the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade destroy/damage 🇷🇺Russian armored vehicles in the Donetsk region pic.twitter.com/rXY45x82Bl
— 🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦 (@front_ukrainian) 20 février 2024Ukrainian soldiers from the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade destroyed/damaged Russian armored vehicles in the Donetsk region
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Russian forces accused of shooting wounded Ukrainian soldiers
The evacuating UAF 110th brigade said that Russian forces shot some of the wounded. If confirmed, this would be a war crime and break of Geneva Convention protocols. /7
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Ukrainian withdrawal under Russian fire control leaves wounded behind
Ukrainian authorities withdrew and preserved what they could. Reinforcements were brought in to cover the withdrawal but by that time, Russia already had fire control of one of the last routes out. Not everyone made it out, including wounded. /6
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Shoigu downplays Avdiivka losses despite wide casualty estimates
Russian casualties are hard to calculate just yet, with ranges from various social media and Ukrainian accounts 16K-47K casualties. Shoigu falsely claims “minimal losses” for Avdiivka. And that the Avdiivka operation will be “taught in textbooks” /5 https://
moscowtimes.ru/2024/02/20/sho
igu-zayavil-ominimalnih-poteryah-pri-vzyatii-avdeevki-a122250
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