In my view, the Ramstein conferences – led by @SecDef – have been masterful in getting nations to take risks, dig deep, supply ammo and arms that they have available…and then some. In my view – contrary to many – contributing nations have been phenomenally generous. 13/
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
-
Russian forces overwhelm Ukrainian defenses with fires and assaults
List of attacking Russian units: 7 brigade + 5 regimental elements. Ukraine mounted a strong defense + 9 years of prepared defenses. Ultimately it it was not enough given the pressure applied. Russian forces overwhelmed UAF units with fires, assault teams, and air attacks. /3
-
Avdiivka loss reveals Russian strategy, capabilities, and next moves
A thread on Avdiivka, what it its loss says about Russian strategy and capabilities, and what they may try to do next. /1
-
Russian brigade elements gained 31 km at Avdiivka costing over 600 vehicles
At Avdiivka, multiple Russian brigade and regiment elements attacked intensely for five months. They gained 31 kilometers for an estimated cost of over 600 armored vehicles @naalsio. /2
-
Russian offensive risks: poor maneuver, no supply lines, high attrition
But in going on the offensive, RU is taking a risk. They're not very good at maneuver, their supply lines are non-existent, and they open themselves up for increased attrition when moving. 8/
-
Russia attacks multiple fronts; Ukrainian forces stretched; Syrskiy’s tactical withdrawal
Russia is attacking at multiple locations simultaneously – Avdiivka, Maryinka, Kreminna, Bakhmut, Kreminna – & the UAF is being stretched thin & low on supply. What is a tactical withdrawal is also a sound operational maneuver by GEN Syrskiy. He's hoping for resupply. 7/
-
Supply Lines as Operational Center of Gravity; UAF Logistics Challenges
What effects? On the battlefield, supply lines are the operational center of gravity. If disrupted or halted, the effects are disastrous. And that's when an army has great logistics chain. Due to the hodge-podge of weapons and lack of prep, UAF does not have that…yet. 5/
-
Putin pulls out all stops with mobilizations and oppression to counter Western support
Putin now knows that Ukraine's continued capability will – for the short term – continue to require support from the west. So he is pulling out all stops, w/ mobilizations (over 400k new (untrained) soldiers as "meat" for attacks), a ramped up industrial base, & oppression. 3/
-
Russia advances with costly artillery barrages and improved coordination
RU has learned that they can take a position through continuous artillery barrages and sending thousands of soldiers to their death. Their artillery attacks have slowed, but they are still massive. They've also become better at coordination between units. 6/
-
US unity waning due to pro-Putin authoritarian actions stalling aid
A mostly unified US during the 1st 18 months is now wavering & increasingly divided, mostly due to actions by a wannabe US authoritarian (& his cult) who for whatever reason support the murderous, criminal Putin. This is stalling US aid, which has multiple effects. 4/