14/ To the south, west of Donetsk, the Ukrainians reportedly retook 4 villages, for them the only good news of the week. The Kherson front remains stable despite artillery exchanges. The Ukrainians are bombing Snake Island, still held by the Russians.
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Military Assessment: Ukraine Loses Most in Its Choice
15/ Military Assessment: The events of the week are not a surprise to any serious analyst. The UKR choice three weeks ago still amazes since it seems that the UKR are the ones who have lost the most in the matter.
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Russian advance in Holirvka and bypassing Bakhmouth from the south
13/ On one hand by clearing Holirvka but also by allowing the RU to bypass Bakhmouth from the south. On the other fronts: Nothing notable at Kharkov. The Izioum front has remained stable, which offers a respite to Slaviansk.
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Encirclement of the Luhans’ke Reservoir and Tangible Consequences
12/ Here too, millimeter-scale progressions hint at sudden collapses. To the south of the 'Popasna flower', the encirclement of the Luhans'ke reservoir is nearing completion. There too, the abandonment of this position will have tangible consequences:
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Ukrainian strategic withdrawal near LK and Bakhmut
Ukrainian commanders logically decided to abandon the last positions in SK and even prepare to cede LK. Indeed, the Bakhmut-LK road was now fully under enemy fire, and the N route from LK to Siversk was also under Russian fire.
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Emergency withdrawal, loss of equipment and 2-3 brigades
10/ Here too, this emergency withdrawal forces leaving behind casualties and equipment, both at SK and at LK. If LK is not yet under RU control at the time of speaking, it is only a matter of days. In total, the loss of the salient is estimated at 2 or 3 brigades less.
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Pocket Closes, Threatening Lysychansk From South Via Key Positions
8/ The pocket’s closure led to increased RU pressure to the North. Myrna Dolina and the outskirts of Bila Hora, and the village of Vovchoyarivka on the other side, constituted positions to directly threaten Lysychansk (LK) from the south.
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Ukrainian losses: 2 to 3 battalions lost despite escapees
7/ Some had managed to escape before, many were surrendering to the Russians, a few isolated ones fled through the fields. If the initial 2000 men were not all captured, the Ukrainians nevertheless lost 2 to 3 battalions in the affair.
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Capture of Vrubivka and closure of the pocket at Zolote and Hirske
6/ Since last week (#8), we reported the possibility of the RU capture of Vrubivka. The village of Rai-Olexandrivka allowed the closing of the pocket by linking with Toshkivka. The UKR troops remaining in Zolote and Hirske were trapped.
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Military position in Severodonetsk pocket and encirclement near Popasna
4/ However, the adopted arrangement left little doubt: controlling the Severodonetsk industrial zone (IZ) with no possibility of supply, maintaining the Zolote pocket, and containing RU pressure on the edges of the “Popasna flower” seemed