On April 22, 2022, Ukrainian forces launched a devastating strike on the forward command post of Russia's 49th Combined Arms Army of the occupying forces.
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Ukrainian Forces Shoot Down Enemy Drone in Luhansk
Ukrainian forces have shot down another enemy drone over Luhansk region. PHOTO https://censor.net/ua/n3336264
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Russian forces face costly urban battles for Donbas control
Donbas is a relatively urban region. Russian forces likely need Severodonetsk to control Luhansk and Slovyansk + Kramatorsk in order to claim they have captured Donetsk. These could end up prolonged and costly fights in urban terrain. 15/
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Decisive first weeks of war, Russian offensive potential near exhaustion
I think it is fair to say that the decisive period of the war was the first three weeks (maybe even first 4 days). Whatever happens in this next phase, the Russian military is likely to exhaust its offensive potential in the near term. 16/
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Ukraine’s offensive options and Russia’s consolidation may avoid stalemate
Does this presage a stalemate? Not necessarily. UKR has its own offensive options. Russia may next try to consolidate control over territory held and pressure UKR via blockade. Its too early to predict what the next phase might look like & it depends on what UKR chooses to do.
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Ukraine reinforces east as Russia fails to disrupt supply lines
Ukraine has been deploying reinforcements to Zaporizhia, Donbas & Kharkiv. Russia has made little effort to disrupt ground lines of communication into the Donbas. This means that a Russian success is at best contingent & UKR could be in position to launch counteroffensives. 10/
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Military aid helps Ukraine replace losses, shift force balance
Expansion of support to include armor, IFVs, and artillery is going to allow Ukraine to replace losses and equip reserve brigades (esp artillery and ammunition which Ukraine needs). Hence the general trajectory of correlation of forces in this war is not in Russia’s favor. 11/
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Russia’s ineffective strategy against Ukraine
If the Russian military sends units in piecemeal, sticking to roads, with narrow advances – they will be defeated by Ukraine as they have in other battles. I’ve seen them make adjustments in some areas, but some of the problems are structural. 12/
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Caution on Donbas battle outcome
Reluctant to make any predictions on how the battle for the Donbas will unfold. These things are contingent, and it depends. The outcome can range from Russian forces making gains to suffering another significant defeat.
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Russian forces in Kherson struggle to hold perimeter, may retreat east
Russian forces in the southwest around Kherson city are struggling to consolidate a defensible perimeter west of the river. The units deployed there are relatively light, and under pressure. They could even be forced over time to retreat east across the Dnipro. 9/