Zelensky on Bucha: What did a man do [wrong] by riding a bike? Why women were strangled after getting earring snatched from their ears? How was it fathomable to rape and kill women in front of their kids? Why were you crushing people's bodies with tanks? How has it got possible?

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It's safe to say that both sides have hopes for military advances in the coming days or weeks. The negotiation window has therefore just closed. Above all, the longer the war lasts, the less likely either side will be ready (barring a local collapse) to give up.28/

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In this now symmetric war, the observer therefore has even more difficulty discerning the outcomes of upcoming battles. If Mariupol were to fall (but I've been announcing it for fifteen days), it would theoretically allow the RU 25/

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In other words, if the RU want to locally alter their balance of power in Donbas, they risk finding that the UKR are also doing so. This is why we are observing deep strikes carried out by the RU targeting either depots of 23/

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However, this logistical movement takes time and mainly gives Ukraine the opportunity to carry out its own reinforcements: either by organizing the terrain in the rear lines of the Donbass, or by sending reinforcements from the Kiev region or the Northeast.

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Specifically, the seizure of the two oblasts of Luhansk and Donetsk. Russia therefore needs to redeploy troops that were launched against Kyiv and failed, in order to reintroduce a concentrated force on the Eastern front. 21/

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To the north, the Russians have taken Izyum but struggle to push south toward Sloviansk. Likewise, the Severodonetsk salient still resists. As for the breakthrough by the DPR forces north of Donetsk, it did not allow the Russians to capitalize. 19/

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All of this indicates Russian forces that are exhausted and lacking mass, which was initially their supposed quality. This also explains the "second phase" of the "special operation." They need to achieve minimal results, 20/

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as the UKR threaten the supply lines of this column. The Eastern Front, that of Donbas, remains. Here too, RU slowness demonstrates how much they are struggling to advance. If the conquest of Mariupol continues, the UKR opposition still resists. 18/

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not a battle of encounter as in our imagination, but a defensive battle of attrition, which resembles (all proportions guarded) the Battle of Verdun in 1916. On the southern front, the UK holds Kherson, allowing them to have a bridgehead on the Dnieper. 16/

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